Follow the money and you see who and what runs America. What are the federal government’s five biggest benefactors?
1. Finance ad banking
2. Military and security complex
3. Oil and gas
4. Big pharma
5. Big agriculture
I have an MBA. I ran a $3 million-a-year charity for 10 years. I worked for savings and loans when they existed. I was one of three Eagle County commissioners overseeing a $100 million budget.
Who runs America is a math problem: Look at the most money coming in and the most going out, and then go back five, 10 and 20 years and see who is getting the big bucks.
We don’t have representatives representing sovereignty of the United States and its people; we have representatives representing Multinational Corporations without borders. Their business plan whether they are Republicans or Democrats is simple:
3. Spend on military hardware
4. Cut taxes for the corporations and super rich.
5. Indemnify themselves and the Corporations from prosecution.
The results are this:
Endless wars for profit
Further and further inequality
Oppression and racism to people of color
So it is that America is an empire in decline. I ask you to apply your moral conscience and ask yourself if the number of people being killing in endless wars, minorities being incarcerated and refugees is going up disproportionately. If the answer is yes, then you understand what the powers that be don’t want you to focus on. That we are unconscious to the killing and oppression of our system.
There are moral consequences to apathy, neglect, ignorance and selfishness. We have been given a great responsibility as Americans. Anyone can complain and moan. Few, if any, can fight with righteous indignation for change not later, not in 2020, not when you have more resources, but now.
As Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. warned, the white moderate who prefers the absence of tension over the presence of justice is our greatest stumbling block.
Our political and financial systems are rigged to represent the 1 percent and that is the injustice I will fight for you in Washington. I’ve asked voters all over District 3 if they think they live in an Oligarchy and over one-third at 12 forums the candidates have held have said yes. Heck, a Princeton University study in 2014 reported America is an Oligarchy. I want to be a Representative who goes after the problem and not the symptom.
I have been lobbying, working and protesting in Washington D.C. since 2001. Over the past four years, I’ve been there a dozen times. We need someone who started and grown both a nonprofit and for-profit business and been elected twice to represent the people not the powerful. I have business experience that the other candidates don’t. I’m the only candidate to say, “Impeach Trump now” before he turns the U.S. into an Authoritarian state.
I’m someone who fights with the urgency of now instead of explaining how we will use incredmentalism, When I started my nonprofit in 1993 for minority kids, I never realized it would grow to a national charity that had served over 60,000 kids in more than nine states. I believe that we must give back for our children’s children. I don’t have hope I have two young kids and I fight for them and all children before it’s too late.
When you give up, they win. Help elect a true activist to Congress. Find out more about me at arnmenconi.com
It is an illusion to think the U.S.A. is a Democracy, or for that matter that any country is today. In 2018, countries aren’t governed to protect their borders. Modern Capitalism has taken over Governments, and now Multi-national Companies own politicians who get them cheap access to needed raw materials and products that create casino financing to borrow, and speculate with Military provided to them to protect their interests paid for by the taxpayers.
I have been arrested in Washington D.C. and New York protesting endless wars for profit four times in the past three years, worked with America’s most famous whistle-blower Daniel Ellsberg, on his latest book “The Doomsday Machine”, spent hours each day trying to bring awareness to the $8 Trillion dollars spent in America’s wars in the Middle East, in an attempt to save lives. Here’s why.
Most will say “There is no anti-war movement”, however let me suggest why it is in your best interest to be for peace in a way that you might not have considered before. It is in your own self interest.
Neuroscientists now claim we have upwards of 32 senses. Carl Jung talked about the collective conscientiousness. “Mother Teresa said that Americans are the least happiest of all the people in the world, because we are so lonely.”
The interconnection between all living things cannot bring suffering to one continent or people without affecting another, suffering manifest equally. It cannot be disconnected when we are all interconnected.
Hating Trump brings about greater hate. The angrier I get the more anger I create in my heart and actions. When I read about the increase in overdose, I can’t help but think it’s a result of our killing millions through endless wars. When I read about depression increasing, I can’t help but think it’s because of our nations disconnect to our actions through wanting more and more stuff.
Happiness doesn’t come through finding the perfect mate, more money or fame (sex drugs and rock & roll). You can’t take a pill to stop what we are doing to others through our ignorance. It’s as simple as if we shot ourselves in the foot thinking it won’t hurt our ability to walk.
I believe that America’s militarism, racism, materialism, and sexism oppresses the world through military intervention. Corporate capitalism, and global warming has resulted in higher addiction, loneliness, divorce, suicide, mass shootings, depression, anxiety and despair.
Think about how at a concert the vibe is shared and when it goes off the entire crowd goes off. Now expand that to suffering and think about an example. Why confine it to only a venue when the venue is our souls or whatever you want to call it.
We are one shared collective consciousness with more senses than scientists will ever discover. Before the advent of artificial intelligence, we need to discover our natural intelligence and bring compassion and love to the greatest suffering in the world in order to bring happiness to ourselves.
Treat yourself with love for if you are self destructive you perpetuate the cycle of suffering in the world.
My kids and I are at the airport in Chicago headed back home to Colorado.
At my Mom’s house, I sleep on the couch, while my kids sleep next to me on the floor on an air mattress, as many families do when visiting relatives during the holidays.
My kids are now ten and twelve, and when I look at them sleeping next to each other, I feel peace. They do not seem to have anything but joy in their hearts. I hope they can have one or two more years of innocence before they have to be like Siddhartha leaving the Palace for the first time.
Matteo thinks the air mattress is for practicing his running back flips and Maya sneaks behind the cabinet to use as her dressing room. My kids and I have traveled a lot so they are used to making do with whatever. Our best adventure was a 2,200-mile road trip in my pickup truck to Jasper, Canada sleeping in the back of the truck for 21 days.
My mom lives in a senior’s apartment building owned by the town, so we meet elderly people in the hall who stop to ask many questions about us. They are not nosey. They are nice. Nothing like most of the neighbors I have had.
Elderly people always ask, “So how’s your Mom doing?” Not, “How’s your mom?” They always add “doing”. I figure it is because they are accustom to people getting sick, going to and from the hospital and dying at any moment, like her next store neighbor did this year. They found him hunched over his kitchen table from a heart attack.
Being with my mom means hearing about when she has to take her pill, doctor visits, who is sick, who passed away and that she may not be around much longer, like the man next store.
Living in a ski town for 25-years means you don’t typically see elderly people. The attitude and snow is a lot for them. I also think the Chamber of Commerce doesn’t want them around messing up the “rugged individualist” myth of the mountains.
Instead, all you hear about are DUIs, knee surgeries, how someone missed a workout as if it was a life ending cancer diagnoses, pot, weed, edibles and if you’re in Aspen…the “white lady.”
The first time a kid in a club asked me if I wanted some “white lady” I had to think for a second about what that was before saying, “No, but if you have any Black Betty I’m going in!”
Late last night Maya shouted, “Dad! Dad! Are you alright?” She said I was having a “scary” dream and shouting, “No! No! No!”
She fell back asleep. I thought about how fucked up my dream seemed and checked Twitter to see what might be happening in Europe or the Middle East like Leonardo on Quaaludes in Wolf of Wall Street, half asleep and disoriented from shouting “No! No!” in my dream. I’ll tell you about my dream in a minute.
I started to see Tweets that the U.N. Security Council voted Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are illegal under international law. I read that many US Senators had come out against the U.N.’s action and that Samantha Powers had abstained.
Many Senators had already started criticizing Obama on Twitter for not sticking up for Israel. Now, I won’t get deep into this here, but I’ve been very outspoken about Israel since the “51 Day War” against Palestine in the summer of 2014. Before that, I was like most people, I did not think about things like Apartheid in Israel, or Gaza being an open-air prison where no one can leave or get in. As an Executive Director of a youth charity, I worried about kids in America, not halfway around the world. But really, it was because I wasn’t paying attention, nor was the media, which is not allowed to say anything negative about Israel. Apartheid is definitely off limits.
I first got interested because I was a scholar at the Aspen Institute’s Idea Fest that summer and went to all the Foreign Affairs sessions to learn about ISIS. There, I met former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren. I had a long discussion with him on a footbridge with the Colorado blue sky and mountains in the background about the U.S. going back into Iraq over ISIS. It was hardly the scene for a discussion on terrorism for most people.
Mr. Oren asked me why I cared about all of this. He said that as an analyst for CNN, his Producers say no one pays attention to this region, so why was I?
I started by muttering, “Well I didn’t think I knew much about the Middle East, but the U.S. had been at war since the late eighties. Shouldn’t we care when innocent people are being killed?” I did not know then that “innocent people being killed” would become my theme song.
He seemed generally interested in my thoughts and we exchanged cards. Later, I would learn a whole lot more about him like how this seemingly wonderful man, who thought I knew so much, was a right-wing Neo-Con and how the Aspen Institute was a front for them.
A few months later, on a Sunday night, I was reading my Twitter feed at my kitchen table alone (have I told you how lonely I was before Twitter?). I saw a post from MSNBC’s Chris Hayes’ that read, “I wonder why more people aren’t concerned about Michael Oren’s response about ISIS versus Iran?” In my head, I yelled, “Hey, I know Oren he gave me his card,” and I opened the link. It was a video of me at the Aspen Ideas Fest where, in front of 300 people, I asked Oren if Israel had to choose between ISIS or Iran who would they pick as a greater enemy.
He responded, “My personal answer, not Israeli’s, is Iran because they have the capability of nuclear weapons.” I freaked out. My question was like my own American Idol moment in Foreign Affairs.
This was in July 2014. I felt I knew shit about the Middle East and here I am, being bantered about between Hayes and Oren regarding Israel, ISIS and Iran at the Aspen Institute. I jumped up from the table, confident that I was going to be openly mentioned in elite circles by the Military, Netanyahu, the Council on Foreign Relations and Hillary. Who knew? It didn’t happen. Sure, there were a few remarks back and forth with Rula Jebreal, Chris Cuomo and Ian Bremmer, until they realized I was nobody.
My point is that for the past 5 years, I wondered if Americans looked at the Middle East on a map and pondered, “Why are there shapes of countries there?” I learned that by doing this thing called reading I could find more information on the Middle East than a new Harry Potter book. People in the news world thought I knew a lot about the subject. U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and I even talked about it in Washington D.C. in the spring of 2015, back when he still talked to me. He said, “Arn, it’s so confusing figuring out the difference between Shiite and Sunni. I make Post It notes to remember who is who.” I rolled my eyes wondering, “How could I know more than a U.S. Senator? I would have traveled there a dozen times by now.”
In 2015, I was traveling back and forth to D.C., sitting in Senate hearings wondering if the Foreign Relations Committee would ever actually talk about a solution to the war with ISIS. Hell, they weren’t even calling it a war because then they would need to pass War Powers for the President. The news barely covered the content of the wars. Only through Twitter was I able to research which foreign journalists’ work to read on the topic.
During that time, I met with my friend, who was a reporter at the Wall Street Journal, and talked to him about what I could do in the business. He said that at my age and experience I would have to be an expert in something since I didn’t come up through the ranks after “J school” (that’s journalism school not jagoff).
I thought it might be a stretch, but I wanted to be an expert on the U.S. military’s budget and the Middle East. In a way, it fit, because I was the only County Commissioner in Colorado who seemed to understand government budgets and that where there’s money, there’s stealing. I wanted to find the biggest hustlers and bust them.
I promised not to go into detail so basically, shit happened and I read, a lot. I talked to as many experts as would take my calls. I found that there were very few people who could take the Federal Budget, look at the military spending over the past ten years, and find the discrepancies between the Delta in the highest numbers.
America’s first whistleblower, Daniel Ellsberg, took me under his wing and wondered why all my interest. I explained that it was no different than the Godfather Part 1 and 2. You follow where the biggest money changed hands and figure out the hustle. He said, “But no one stops wars.” I agreed, and added that, “I don’t want to stop a war, I want to slow it down and mitigate the effectiveness like you did. You were the only one in modern history and I’m sitting at your kitchen table.”
I have a persistence and self-confidence that only the smartest people seem to either appreciate or ignore.
So, now that you know the motive behind my why, let me bring it home. I’ve taken this story to the air and we are landing in Denver soon.
As I read the “Twitter Swerve”, or the ever-changing story, I noticed that the Orange One had weighed in, “As to the U.N. things will be different after January 20th.” What a nightmare.
Obama just gave Israel $38 billion over the next 10 years, and sold (or gave them, depending on how you look at it), a few F-35’s. He allows Israel to have nuclear weapons without acknowledging it and sits back while they use Palestinians for target practice for the development of new weapons. They pretty much decide a good portion of the U.S.’s Foreign Policy.
Now nearly all of the Republicans in the House and Senate, as well as many Democrats, are coming to Israel’s defense, because the Israeli NeoCons decide what is in our country’s best interests. We are Israel’s Defense Department, State Department and Intelligence Agency. But why stop there? Now we have the Flock of Seagulls Hair Reunion Tour President, immediately attacking the U.N. for declaring that Israel has committed war crimes, and his reign of terror hasn’t even begun.
If I had more time, I would talk about what the pundits are saying. Since it’s Saturday, it appears not much, which is not surprising.
I posted an article earlier today from the U.S. Editor Chemi Shalev of Israel’s liberal paper Haaretz who tweeted an hour ago, “Netanyahu is now aligning himself completely with Donald Trump, against the entire world.”
I have to put away my laptop so I am going to have to finish quickly about my other nightmare.
A man in an orange Speedo, who wanted to have sex with me in a pool at a ski resort, was chasing me. When my daughter asked me what my scary dream about I said, “I’m trying to forget honey.” I hugged her and told her that we had better get ready to go home.
Peace On Earth Goodwill To All…I said “ALL”.
Last night in NYC after checking out the Trump Towers garrison and realizing I won’t be the next Secretary of State, my only thought was to run.
As I blazed, I realized I was at the epicenter of Capitalism – 5th Ave & 56th St. aka “The Devil Wears Prada Triangle”.
So what happened next was I ran into a crazy white man carrying a big stuffed fish, wearing a cowboy hat was singing, “where is the love?”
Fisher of men?!
I went across the street looked up and saw the Plaza Hotel where rooms are $24,000 a night. I thought, “Bono’s got a like a $100 million Penthouse here. Could I find him and strangle him?”
All 3 guards let me through. All I had to ask them is, “where’s the bar?”
As I approached the “Plaza” bar, I realized my own contradiction – I did not fit in yet I was a white guy with grey hair.
I was privileged. I had been to the Ritz in London. Sat hours in the renaissance room at the Louv. Hiked Manchu Picchu. Flew on a private Gulfstream to D.C. and hung out with Shawn White at the half pipe.
So when the two ladies from England sitting next to me asked, “what brings you to NYC?” I said, “court.”
They looked more concerned than I would have. I said, “it was at the Presidential Debates for protesting.” They asked, “what was I protesting?”
I said, “everything” and sipped my dirty martini straight up in a rocks glass “I ran for U.S. Senate.”
“And what do you do?” Came next.
Eventually they didn’t like me because with a shit eating grin said, “I’m a cross between Jeremy Corbin and Russel Brand” which literally disturbed the one lady.
They were here for the weekend. I was no longer entertaining. They left.
I sat alone thinking it’s cold out besides wanting to drink a lot of beers with Jeremy Scahill there was nothing I really wanted to do in NYC. So I nursed my martini.
A couple my age sat down next to me which freaked me out, because they were a couple and my age which is like so rare to me.
They were from Maryland here to see a Chic Corea concert. I said, “oh nice I saw him in 81.”
Again I was asked why I was in NYC and went through the same blah blah arrest yeah yeah thing.
So Mary wanted to grill me on my politics. I’ve gotten good at learning how to size people up in 60 sec and decide how I’ll beat them in the argument they are about to have with me. Not because I want one. I just bring out the stupid in some people.
So la de da we chatted it up. She voted for Trump and my friend (I hope) Margaret Flowers for U.S. Senate.
We talked about most everything that you’d find boring…our kids, governmental regulations and my bill came.
It was $50 bucks for two martinis!
Mary said, “what the fuck did you expect you’re in the Plaza Hotel?” And looks at me like ‘dumb shit’ which I find soothing compared to the passive aggressive insults in Colorado.
I said, “dude I live near Aspen and Vail shut up.”
She railed on me. Not that having a woman rail on me is so usual but this chic took it from drink prices, to Green Party, back to ‘get the fuck out of here’ to “I had to explain to my daughter’s what getting a blow job in the Oval Office meant”.
Blow job? I’m listening.
Me, “what are you talking about?”
“Bill Clinton, you don’t know what it’s like to tell your 10 year old daughter what a blow job is.” Mary said like it was happening today not in 1998.
Funny enough I’d heard it before. I get it too. I have a 12 year old daughter that she already seen the pictures and knew I’d kill for her. But sorry I wasn’t convinced that’s what took down the Democratic Party.
Yes I know Bill was a lying piece of shit put who isn’t at that level?
She repeated something she said earlier, “I can’t figure you out.”
I said, “look Mary I like you cause I probably grew up a lot like you but in Chicago instead of Baltimore back in the day, day. The difference is there are parents I know who have to explain to their kids why Eric Gardner got choked 13 times, will their mom be deported to Mexico, wanting their Native land back and I lay wake worrying about Muslim kids in refugee camps because the U.S. bombed the shit out of them for 35 years. Oh let’s not forget that 6 million Southeast Asia we killed because America lied about Vietnam. I love my kids too, but what about all the others?”
Bono never came down from his palace and the mood shifted so I did too.
We all know what I’m talking about whether we are white, black, yellow, brown or green.
It’s about who and what we are capable of caring about. Either way no one can care about everything and still be human.
Looks like I’m descending back into the Rocky Mountains from the Heavens.
Peace. Keep Spreading the Love.
Denver, CO – Arn Menconi and his team are traveling to Standing Rock to bear witness to the U.S. government’s war on the environment. With six days left until the polls close in America, we hope to bring more support to the Protectors and awareness of what is happening with the DAPL construction and protests through direct action and independent journalism.
“As a person who is fighting for the people and our planet, I want to bear witness to the government’s militarized destruction of the environment and violent disregard for human life. Because the mainstream media is completely refusing to cover this monumental and historic event, I will live stream the events I witness on the Mint Press News and Real Progressives Facebook pages. I am risking police brutalization and arrest to set the example that it is possible to take social progress into our own hands. If I am elected Colorado Senator, I will keep fighting for the greater good at all costs.”
Arn Menconi wants to inspire each of you, regardless of your political affiliation, to fight the good fight alongside him. Here is what you can do to show your solidarity:
- Share this information and our posts about the US government’s war on the environment.
- Donate directly to the Standing Rock Tribe at www.standingrock.org
- Don’t vote for Democrats or Republicans unless they support your causes like Amendment 69, anti-war, anti-fracking, and are against the TPP.
- Please make a $5-$20 donation to help with food, gas, and potential legal fees for his trip at ArnMenconi.com
- Follow and share Arn’s livestreams this weekend on Real Progressives and Mint Press News.
Mr. Menconi believes that if we stand together in this fight for people and planet, we will have the power to speak truth to these special interests and make positive change in society. Please follow Arn’s social media for updates on how to take direct action against the oligarchy every day. And always remember to #SpreadTheLove.
For important updates on Arn Menconi’s trip to Standing Rock, his Senatorial campaign and the work he will continue after the election, follow his Facebook page Arn Menconi for U.S. Senate. For continuing on-the-ground coverage of DAPL, follow Jordan Chariton of TYT Politics. https://youtu.be/38dQTnqccHw
We wanted to share with you this latest interview with Julian Assange talking about US election, foreign policy, arm deals and Hillary Clinton.
The Wikileaks revealed election fraud and how the Global Corporate Mafia works:
- Taking Pay to Play for endless wars
- Colluding with the media to manipulate public opinion
- The Clinton Foundation’s ties to the banks
- Lying, lying, and I forget the last one…
Here are findings from the Wikileaks DNC document Dump, and you already know Hillary is a huge part of the Mafia’s DNC mess. The Corporate Political Machine shut down Wikileaks so we couldn’t see how the game is played. This alone shows how damning the evidence is! We only have 18 days left to fight this system; making this post viral is today’s direct action.
1. Mainstream media colluding with the DNC to cover up lies
2. Burying Bernie
3. Clinton’s weapons deals with Saudi Arabia & ISIS
4. Pay to Play
5. HRC lying to public about policy stances
6. HRC being a closeted racist and bigot
7. Clinton Foundation Corruption
8. Clinton is pro-fracking:
9. Donna Brazile sharing information before the debate
10. Hillary is pro-TPP
11. Wall Street & Oligarchy is running Obama, Clinton, and DNC
This election is riding on the millennial vote! Young people, wake up now, not when you are 50. Make your vote matter now!
Thank you Boulder Weekly for acknowledging for my conviction to represent the people of Colorado. I greatly appreciate your endorsement.
“If elected, Menconi says he’d be a “senate activist,” speaking out against the issues he’s already spent years protesting. He would even continue protesting if the need arises. “People are going to do what their leaders do,” he says.
He is adamantly anti-war, protesting the continuous U.S. military presence in the Middle East and elsewhere, while calling for a ban on nuclear weapons and proposes to cut the “bloated” U.S. military budget. He’s also against the TPP trade deal and big money in politics, saying politicians spend too much of their time in office fundraising. He believes the current “rules” are written for the benefit of multi-national corporations and industries such as the financial sector, oil and gas, military contractors and big pharmaceutical and agricultural companies. Because of this belief, he refuses to take money from Super PACs, corporations and special interest groups. He promises to move towards universal health care for all, address the inequality gap and achieve 100 percent renewable energy by 2050 by focusing on solar energy, introducing a carbon pollution tax, banning fracking and making the Paris COP21 agreement binding.
We couldn’t agree more. Vote Arn Menconi for Colorado’s next U.S. Senator.”
Elect Arn Menconi for U.S. Senate Donate/Volunteer www.arnmenconi.com
Kyle Clark and 9News Denver NBC said that the reason the Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams and I weren’t in the U.S. Senate Debates were because we did not make the required 10%. Kyle said that we were asked to provide information if we had any polls proving otherwise. I asked what polls they were using and only received one. I sent this to Brandon Rittiman this information who was a moderator.
We weren’t asked to provide information. Polling does not ask about third party candidates. I was called and many others and we weren’t ask about Lily and I.
People under 34 aren’t polled. People without hardline aren’t called.
Third Party Candidates aren’t given equal air time on news so we aren’t known. So we have to go to extreme measures.
The debate last night did not use the words Global Warming. Both candidates were asked about fracking in a yes or no question and both said they were against local communities from banning fracking!
This debate nor neither candidate talked about endless wars, global warming, breaking up the big banks, auditing the defense budget, free college, not taking special interest money, ending the two party system run by the top 1%, arresting war criminals from our government, releasing whistleblowers, labeling our foods, getting universal health care, free early childcare.
It wasn’t a debate it was a commercial for the oligarchy to think we have choices that will represent the 99%. Here was the glitz and glamor between Bennet & Glenn by two repeaters not reporters.
Polling Discrepancies and Potential Errors
Here’s the research on polling:
There have been a total of 8 polls released on the U.S. Senate Race in Colorado. These polls are in ordered based on the most recent:
- Emerson (9/9-9/13)
- Magellan (8/29-8/31)
- Quinnipiac (8/9-8/16)
- NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College (8/4-8/10)
- NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College (7/5-7/11)
- Fox News (7/9-7/12)
- Monmouth University (7/9-7/12)
- Harper (7/7-7/9)
All of the above polls have raised questions about their methods and their reliability after review.
- Emerson Poll (9/9-9/13) – The Emerson Poll is the most recent poll available. They polled 600 “Very Likely Voters” for the 2016 General Election. The statistics that stand out the most in this poll is that 593 respondents supposedly voted in the 2016 primaries (With 77 voting “Other” and 7 as “No Vote”). Based on the caucus and primary turnouts, these numbers would be hard to achieve unless the pollsters specifically screened respondents who only voted in the caucuses/primaries. Senator Sanders won the state by double-digits. The number polled for him 124 (20.7%) is lower than those who voted for Secretary Clinton 136 (22.7%). Since Republicans did not have a caucus or primary this year in Colorado, it is not known who would have won. Regardless, the results of this poll are invalid as none of the Republicans had a chance to caucus or primary.
- The Emerson Poll shows Michael Bennet with a new low of 42.1% favorability rating. There also seems to be around 14.8% of the overall electorate that “Will Listen” to the other candidates for Senate. This poll also is the first since the beginning of July that has Bennet below 50% (Bennet 46.1%, Glenn 39%, Someone Else 6.9%, Undecided 8%). This poll did not include 3rd party candidates for the Senate race in Colorado.
- Magellan (8/29-8/31) – The Magellan poll is one of the more detailed and reliable polls available as it has a complete demographic breakdown which others lack, and also include 3rd party options. This poll shows incumbent Senator Michael Bennet up 10% (Bennet 48%, Glenn 38%, Williams 4%, Menconi 3%, Undecided 7%). This poll leans Republican (which is possibly which it is not included in Real Clear Politics’ average). The respondents were 35% Republican, 34% Democrat, 29.5% Unaffiliated, 1% Libertarian, 0.5% Green). Arn is polling the best with single men (8.1%) and worst with married women (0.8%). Arn also polls the best with those 18-34 (7.2%), and support drops with age. CD1 has Arn’s strongest level of support at (8.1%). While questions can be raised about how conservatively skewed this poll may be, this poll may have the assumptions correct assuming more people turn out for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton with the differences in enthusiasm in each campaign. Therefore, the Magellan poll may be one of the most accurate available.
- Quinnipiac (8/9-8/16) – This poll demonstrates a lack of information regarding the demographics polled and does not publicly disclose their methods. This is a combination poll that also includes the Iowa Senate race. There is no full file available that shows anything about the type of people they polled, which makes it impossible to replicate. There are a total of 3 short paragraphs describing the Colorado Senate Race. This poll shows a 16-point lead for Michael Bennet, but fails to describe who is exactly voting for him. He is leading 54-38. Yet 8% is unaccounted for and no 3rd party options were described. This result is the same as the two NBC/WSJ/Marist polls conducted in August and July.
- NBC/WSJ/Marist (7/5-7/11) (8/4-8/10) – These polls are among the strangest available and present numerous oddities and inconsistencies. There were no 3rd party options available in the CO Senate race, yet it does include 3rd parties in the presidential race. However, respondents were only given the choice of the 3rd party in the presidential race after being primed responding to the binary Clinton v. Trump question. No 3rd parties were asked about in the Senate race in Colorado. The only demographics described in both versions of the poll were male or female. An unusual aspect of the NBC/WSJ/Marist polls is that the pollsters were to guess the gender of the person they were speaking with. What jumps out as being very off with these polls is that every poll number for each question was different from July to August, except in the Colorado Senate race where not one number budged. The margin of error in these polls is around 3-3.5%. Therefore, receiving the exact same numbers (Bennet 53%, Glenn 38%, Other 2%, Undecided 7%) is quite statistically significant, and very improbable. No breakdown on demographic voting patterns was provided, even a gender analysis.
- Fox News (7/9-7/12) – The Fox News poll skews towards the democrats and under samples independents (Democrats 38%, Republican 33%, Independent/Other 25%, Refused 4%). These numbers do not represent the electorate of Colorado. This poll did not include 3rd party candidates for the CO Senate race, but did include them in the Presidential race. Interestingly, Dr. Jill Stein is polling at 10% with Independents, the group most underrepresented in the sample. Additionally, this poll demonstrates a total of 17% either wouldn’t vote, do not know, or would vote for another candidate not listed of the major four. In the CO Senate race, Bennet is ahead by 15% (Bennet 51%, Glenn 36%, Other 1%, Wouldn’t Vote 3%, Don’t know 9%). Hispanics make up the largest portions of the “Don’t know” responses at 17%, followed by non-whites at 15%, and Independents at 13%. Collectively, Independents that “Don’t know” or “Wouldn’t vote” total 18%.
- Monmouth University (7/9-7/12) – Monmouth is the first poll to ask about 3rd party candidates for U.S. Senate in Colorado. This poll shows Bennet with a 13-point lead (Bennet 48%, Glenn 35%, Williams 3%, Menconi 2%, Undecided 12%). Demographics were given, however they were not tabulated to include the portions given to each candidate. Independents were slightly under sampled (Republican 34%, Democrat 34%, Unaffiliated/Other 32%), and Hispanics were significantly under sampled (83% White, 3% Black, 11% Hispanic, 2% Other). More respondents said they would vote for Bennet (48%) and approve of him (51%) than found him favorable (43%). While it is expected to have some deviation in responses, the questions are correlated and the numbers would typically be closer together. This could demonstrate the straight-ticket voting mentality among voters and choosing the candidate who seems like the least terrible option.
- Harper Polling (7/7-7/9) – The Harper poll is the first public poll available for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado. Democrats were slightly oversampled. This poll excluded 3rd party candidates and found Bennet with a 6-point lead over Glenn (Bennet 46%, Glenn 40%, Undecided 14%). Interestingly, the question was posed “Do you think Bennet has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?” The responses were: Deserves re-election 38%, Give a new person a chance 38%, Not Sure, Depends on Opponent 24%. This piece of information shows a majority would be willing to vote in a new candidate depending on who it is (61%). Therefore, there could be at minimum 8% of Bennet’s 46% to defect to a better candidate. Only 20% of respondents viewed Bennet as “Very favorable” (Overall favorability 40%). This presents the possibility of up to 26% of Bennet’s supporters potentially being swayed even if they believe he deserves re-election. Oddly, somehow this survey includes 2% of respondents in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM region. There is no data or summary showing they were excluded.
Poll Analysis and Summary
Multiple polls used a survey method called “Interactive Voice Response.” This is not person-to-person polling, but a form of automated polling which uses either voice recognition or touch-dial to select choices. Many callers may not be receptive to this method of polling and is often criticized from the poor design and response to these systems. Traditionally, polling has been fairly accurate to discern outcomes. However, polling certain populations remains a challenge and many polling outlets will weight responses they do not get enough of more heavily (i.e. making a 18-34 or Hispanic respondent’s answers count twice as much as more commonly polled individuals). Since all of these polls also ask about the presidential race, it is possible for respondents to be primed to answer a certain way once asked about the CO Senate race. It is expected to see polls with errors (as it is officially called margin-of-error) from the inability to sample a segment of the population. Yet it is extremely problematic that demographics and information tables were not provided in some of the polls that show the most potential for skewing and large errors in favor of a certain candidate. The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls have an anomaly of the same exact results that raises suspicions about the validity of their findings, and whether a second poll was even done in the month of August in the Colorado Senate race. The lack of demographic data on the NBC/WSJ/Marist makes it impossible to verify whether this is the case.
There are some concerns to be addressed that do appear to be real after an analysis of all these polls. It is highly unlikely, even with the problems within the polling, that Arn Menconi or Lily Tang Williams can reach a 10% threshold for the 9 News debate in the official “independent” polls. Highlighting this is the fact only 2 of the 8 polls (only one in the RCP Average) includes 3rd parties as an option, and both under polled segments of the population more likely to support a third party candidate. However, the real percentage points for both Arn and Lily are likely higher than what any of the two polls state, especially if considering a certain level of straight-ticket voting with the presidential election. Yet, part of the problem has to do with name recognition, which is correlated with Bennet’s high numbers. Additionally, Glenn’s consistently lower numbers are also a result of his lack of name recognition. A Senate race in CO has not been polled so heavily towards an incumbent Democrat in decades. Colorado has increasingly become a strongly progressive state with some political analysts and pundits removing it from the traditional “swing-state” category into the blue. Yet, the progressives in this state remain firmly divided into separate factions when it comes to the support of things like ColoradoCare.
There are signs to be optimistic that Arn can actually win this election, even when down in the single-digits at this point. There is no fear factor of voting the lesser of two-evils in the Senate of 100 and people should feel totally feel to vote for the candidate they think will best represent them. Colorado has shown that there are more true progressives here than moderate progressives that can potentially win the state for Arn. Yet, the Green Party must be careful about the strategy for winning Colorado as it includes also giving a boost to Lily-Tang Williams. There is promise that Lily can also generate a large following as the state has a lot of Libertarians that typically vote Republican. There is evidence that large factions of both Bennet and Glenn backers can be swayed to vote a different way. This can truly be a race where it ends something like 27% Menconi, 25% Bennet, 25% Glenn, 23% Williams. The recent primary with Bernie Sanders winning by almost 20% validates the fact that there are more strong progressives than moderate ones. Obama won the state with about 51.5% in 2012, with legalized cannabis beating him out by 55%. There is a definite possibly for Arn to win if the cards fall right.